Big Ten football picks: #13 Wisconsin vs. #3 Ohio State & 6 more

October 25th, 2019

With our 2-2-1 record last week, we are still a solid 21-16-1 on the season as we roll into a big weekend for the Big Ten. This week's slate features a number of consequential matchups, as Wisconsin will look to bounce back at Ohio State and Michigan will seek to finally capture a signature win for Jim Harbaugh against the Fighting Irish (all games Saturday).

Wisconsin #13 at Ohio State #3, noon ET, FOX

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total

Wisconsin Badgers	+14.5 (-115)	+450	O 50 (-111)
Ohio State Buckeyes	-14.5 (-105)	-650	U 50 (-109)

Since they failed to cover against Florida Atlantic in their season opener, the Buckeyes have been an ATM against the spread and have dominated their competition at every turn. Ohio State is now 6-1 ATS this season, thanks to the best average margin of victory in the country at 41.7 points. And although they find themselves behind Alabama and LSU in the latest AP rankings, the Buckeyes have put together a convincing argument that they are the best team in the country.

Say hello to the Week 9 AP Poll 🏈

1. Alabama
2. LSU
3. Ohio State
4. Clemson
5. Oklahoma
6. Penn State
7. Florida
8. Notre Dame
9. Auburn
10. Georgia
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 20, 2019

Ohio State welcomes a Wisconsin team that is licking its wounds after a shocking loss to Illinois last week as a 31-point favorite. The logical move might be to take Ohio State and not think twice about it, but of course it’s not quite that easy, especially when there is so much on the line.

The loss to Illinois was confounding in many ways and is certainly concerning, but has the makeup to compete with Ohio State, largely because the Badgers lead the nation in time of possession. Although I have questions about its secondary, this is still a talented and tough Wisconsin defense, and coupled with one of the best running backs in the country, the Badgers can control the ball, keep Justin Fields off the field and do enough to keep it close.

Pick: Wisconsin +14.5

Notre Dame #8 (-1) at Michigan #19, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

This feels like a must-win game in so many ways for Michigan—not from a championship perspective, but for the future of the program. Michigan is a stunning 1-10 against top 10 teams with Jim Harbaugh as head coach. Although they showed some fight last week to come back against Penn State in a tough road environment, the Wolverines have to now turn around and play a solid Notre Dame squad that will come into the Big House rested off a bye and with its national championship aspirations still in front of them.

WATCH: #NotreDame coach Brian Kelly on how he uses technology to keep his team sharp during a bye week. Kelly is 18-2 off the bye at 3 stops over the past 16 seasons. Only losses:

2011 ND vs. USC 31-17
2008 CIN @UConn 40-16 https://t.co/eIsTe08rAV
— Mike BerardinoNDI (@MikeBerardino) October 25, 2019

With so much on the line, I am tempted to take Michigan and hope the intensity and emotion of the game plays in the home team’s favor, but the loathsome Brian Kelly has showed he can win big games like this far more than Harbaugh, and Ian Book is an easy choice over the shaky Shea Patterson. In what should be an electric atmosphere in Saturday night, give me the Fighting Irish.

Pick: Notre Dame -1

Penn State #6 (-5.5) at Michigan State

With Michigan State coming off two lopsided losses to Ohio State and Wisconsin, there’s no doubt Penn State will be a public play Saturday. However, the Spartans have a couple key factors going in their favor, most notably that they come into this game off a much-needed bye, while Penn State has to now travel to East Lansing after a tough win over Michigan last week and a road date with Iowa the week before. Michigan State’s offensive line against this fierce Nittany Lions front seven is a major concern, but the talented Spartans defense will get back on track this week.

Pick: Michigan State +5.5

Illinois at Purdue (-9.5), noon ET, Big Ten Network

Hangovers can be brutal. And if there was ever a team to suffer big-win hangover, it’s this Illini team, still riding high from its stunning win over Wisconsin. However, Illinois is 3-1 ATS as an underdog this season, and the Illini can cover again. Despite the valid concern that the Illini could come out flat after a big win, give me Lovie Smith’s beard plus the points.

Pick: Illinois +9.5

Iowa #20 (-9.5) at Northwestern, noon ET, ESPN2

Northwestern is absolutely brutal on offense, but with Iowa’s top receiver and middle linebacker expected to be out for this game, I’m betting the Wildcats will cover in what will likely be an unwatchable game.

Pick: Northwestern +9.5

Maryland at Minnesota #17 (-15), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

On principle alone I feel I have to take Minnesota, because of my enormous respect for coach P.J. Fleck and my enormous disrespect for Mike Locksley. But with the Terrapins likely to have running back Anthony McFarland and quarterback Josh Jackson back this week, I’m going to go against my better judgement and bet that Maryland can score enough points to stay within the number.

Pick: Maryland +15

Indiana at Nebraska (-1.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, Big Ten Network

With the starting quarterbacks for both teams game-time decisions, this is a coin-flip type of game. Nebraska comes into this game off a bye, but Indiana seems to have captured some momentum over the last several weeks. Taking Indiana on the road in a conference game is usually not a great idea, but I like Peyton Ramsey over the Huskers’ back-up quarterback—if it comes to that.

Pick: Indiana +1.5

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