Big 12 free picks: Oklahoma and Texas hit the road
October 25th, 2019
Three of the four contenders for the Big 12 crown will see action this week, and two will travel for tough tests that could shape the rest of the conference race. Oklahoma will visit Manhattan to face a Kansas State team looking to get one step closer to a bowl game, while Texas will face a TCU squad that has a dangerous defense but is sputtering at the moment. Let’s break down the biggest games on the Big 12 slate this weekend (all games Saturday).
#5 Oklahoma (-23.5) vs. Kansas State, noon EST, ABC
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|
Oklahoma Sooners | -23.5 (-112) | -1800 | O 58.5 (-112) |
Kansas State Wildcats | +23.5 (-108) | +900 | U 58.5 (-108) |
Another week, another win for the Sooners, who sit at 7-0 and are serious contenders for the College Football Playoff. They are coming off of a 52-14 win over West Virginia, and the offensive juggernaut led by Jalen Hurts has scored at least 45 points in all but one game this season. They have trailed for a total of nine snaps all season. You read that correctly—nine snaps.
The Sooners have not lost a true road game since October of 2014, a streak of 22 games, and Kansas State hopes to put an end to that. Ranked third in defensive time of possession and first in the nation in fewest plays allowed, the Wildcats have benefited from their second-ranked rushing attack pounding the ball to keep the other offense off the field. Their fifth-ranked pass defense has been outstanding for much of the season, but their run defense has been porous, which has been a significant factor in their defeats.
The Sooners have not lost a true road game since October of 2014, a streak of 22 games, and Kansas State hopes to put an end to that. Ranked third in defensive time of possession and first in the nation in fewest plays allowed, the Wildcats have benefited from their second-ranked rushing attack pounding the ball to keep the other offense off the field. Their fifth-ranked pass defense has been outstanding for much of the season, but their run defense has been porous, which has been a significant factor in their defeats.
Kansas State's Chris Klieman: 'What Oklahoma is doing is unbelievable' on offense.
— 𝕺𝖐𝖑𝖆𝖍𝖔𝖒𝖆 𝖛𝖘. 𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝖂𝖔𝖗𝖑𝖉 (@soonergridiron) October 25, 2019
"He did it at the SEC level. He’s doing it at the Big 12 level. He’s going to do it at the next level on Sundays." — Kleiman on Jalen Hurts#OUDNA | #BoomerSoonerhttps://t.co/LrerU6jnWf
Stopping Oklahoma is difficult, because the Sooners can beat you in several ways. Even if they are able to stop Hurts through the air, the multi-faceted rushing attack will be too much. Oklahoma has failed to cover three times this season, but all of those failures came against teams that pass the ball much better than Kansas State. If the Wildcats fall behind early and are unable to maintain their rushing attack, it could turn into a blowout.
Defense has been the main culprit for the Cowboys' downfall, as they have allowed more than 258 yards per game through the air and another 173 on the ground. Quarterback Spencer Sanders’ poor play has not helped, either. He has thrown eight interceptions in his last four games, with just four touchdowns. Running back Chuba Hubbard has topped 30 carries in four of his last five games, as the Cowboys have tried to take some of the pressure off their quarterback’s shoulders.
The Cyclones, led by Brock Purdy, rank 15th in passing offense and 23rd in total offense and will look to feast on the 92nd-ranked pass defense of the Cowboys. If Iowa State’s defense, ranked 22nd in the nation in rushing yards allowed, is able to slow down Hubbard enough to force Oklahoma State into passing downs consistently, it is unlikely the Cowboys will be able to keep up.
Thankfully for the Horned Frogs, their issues with passing may not be a problem this week. Their powerful rushing attack will look to get going against a Texas defense that has allowed three 100-yard rushers in their last two outings and gave up 259 yards on the ground last week to Kansas—a game the Longhorns won on a last-minute field goal.
If the TCU defense, which held Kansas State to only 14 first downs, can step up and slow down Texas, the Horned Frogs should do just enough to steal a win at home.
Pick: Oklahoma -23.5
Oklahoma State at #23 Iowa State (-11), 3:30 p.m. ET, FS1
The Cowboys are reeling at the moment, likely wondering what happened to such a promising season. After a 3-0 start Oklahoma State has lost three of its last four games.Defense has been the main culprit for the Cowboys' downfall, as they have allowed more than 258 yards per game through the air and another 173 on the ground. Quarterback Spencer Sanders’ poor play has not helped, either. He has thrown eight interceptions in his last four games, with just four touchdowns. Running back Chuba Hubbard has topped 30 carries in four of his last five games, as the Cowboys have tried to take some of the pressure off their quarterback’s shoulders.
The Cyclones, led by Brock Purdy, rank 15th in passing offense and 23rd in total offense and will look to feast on the 92nd-ranked pass defense of the Cowboys. If Iowa State’s defense, ranked 22nd in the nation in rushing yards allowed, is able to slow down Hubbard enough to force Oklahoma State into passing downs consistently, it is unlikely the Cowboys will be able to keep up.
Pick: Iowa State -11
#15 Texas (-1) at TCU, 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX
TCU is coming off of a pair of losses and is looking to rebound at home against the 5-2 Longhorns, who must win this game to keep within striking distance of Baylor and Oklahoma at the top of the Big 12 standings.Thankfully for the Horned Frogs, their issues with passing may not be a problem this week. Their powerful rushing attack will look to get going against a Texas defense that has allowed three 100-yard rushers in their last two outings and gave up 259 yards on the ground last week to Kansas—a game the Longhorns won on a last-minute field goal.
If the TCU defense, which held Kansas State to only 14 first downs, can step up and slow down Texas, the Horned Frogs should do just enough to steal a win at home.
Pick: TCU +1
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