Armed Forces Bowl: Tulane vs. Southern Miss preview and pick

The Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday, January 4 in Fort Worth, Texas features two teams that were trending the wrong way as the regular season ended. After it started the year 5-1, with the only blemish a road loss at Auburn, Tulane stumbled to a 6-6 finish. Southern Mississippi’s story had it in the thick of the Conference USA West race before the Golden Eagles got blown out in their final two conference games.

Both teams will look to finish the year on a high note with a rare bowl win. Tulane has only one bowl victory since 2002, while Southern Mississippi has one since 2011.

Armed Forces Bowl: Southern Mississippi vs. Tulane, 11:30 a.m. ET (ESPN)

Tulane has the edge on offense

Tulane’s offense appears far superior to Southern Mississippi’s and it starts up front with a more physical offensive line. However, when the Green Wave gets behind the chains, things get more prickly. Southern Miss’ offensive line is much better in pass protection than run blocking.

Tulane’s offense has performed considerably better against a much tougher schedule. I particularly noticed a poor touchdown rate for the Golden Eagles against a soft slate. Both of these teams have high drive bust and turnover rates, which might lead to a defensive struggle, though the Armed Forces Bowl has been notoriously high scoring historically. Army scored 70 last year!

Expect plenty of turnovers

Southern Miss appears to have the defensive edge. Its defensive line is similarly stout against the run but worlds better at getting after the passer. The only area where the Green Wave is better defensively is in the yielding of explosive plays, and it is here where I think this game will be decided.

I could see this game being one rife with a lot of three and outs and turnovers. Assuming those turnovers are relatively even, it will be the team making the chunk plays that gains the scoring edge. I do not foresee long, drawn-out marches down the field. Tulane was 25th nationally in plays of 10+ yards (USM 83rd). Southern Miss was more apt to make the 20+ yard variety of plays.

Tulane has a slight edge in special teams, but that edge may be magnified in this game. Golden Eagles return specialist Jaylond Adams is unlikely to play. He has three kick-return touchdowns and is the team’s third leading wide receiver. He could be sorely missed in what otherwise looks to be an evenly matched game.

NCAAF free pick: Tulane -7

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