ACC football picks: #1 Clemson vs. North Carolina & 5 more

Clemson finds itself as a massive favorite in conference play again this week. When evaluating historical norms it seems absurd for a team to so consistently be such a big favorite in conference play, and yet this Clemson team is just different. The Tigers are massive favorites to win the ACC and will be double-digit favorites in every game they play this year.

Clemson is covering spreads even when it isn't playing its best. The Tigers are 3-1 against the spread in 2019 but more impressively they are 7-0 against the spread in their last seven road games. This kind of point-spread dominance is impressive for any team but even more so when there is a No. 1 or No. 2 ranking in front of the name that leads to inflated lines.

Sportsbooks are pricing this Clemson team high but still not high enough. Clemson has the best offensive line in the conference, as well as the best quarterback, running back and wide receivers. The Tigers are capable of doing what they want offensively, and Dabo Swinney is a great motivator. Statistics that lend themselves to analytics are not caught up with this roster, because Clemson is so much better in every facet of the game that it isn't revving the engine at full capacity.

On the other side of the field, North Carolina started the season with a surprising 2-0 straight-up and ATS record but has since crashed back down to earth. Freshman quarterback Sam Howell is a talented young passer and will have a great career at UNC, but against Clemson defensive coordinator Brent Venables, he is going to be in for a long day. I anticipate Howell will make one or two big plays, but will get beaten up and worn down by the conclusion of the game. I expect Clemson to cover another large road spread and continue its burn-everything march through the ACC.

Pick: Clemson -27

Holy Cross at Syracuse (-38.5), Saturday, noon ET, ACC Network

Syracuse got back on track last weekend, with a big win and easy cover against Western Michigan. This is a big spread, but Syracuse wants to play fast and score points, and that is what it takes to cover lines like this.

Pick: Syracuse -38.5

Georgia Tech at Temple (-8.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBSSN

This spread feels about five points too low. Temple struggled last week against Buffalo but impressively shut down an explosive Maryland offense the week before. Georgia Tech, with its young roster, isn’t ready for a tough defense.

Pick: Temple -8.5

#18 Virginia at #10 Notre Dame (-12.5), Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network

Virginia has a tough defense and Notre Dame is set up to have a hangover after a physical, emotional game at Georgia. Virginia is undefeated and playing with a lot of confidence.

Pick: Virginia +12.5

North Carolina State at Florida State (-6.5), Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network

Despite NC State’s struggles at West Virginia, I’m not sure what Florida State has done to deserve to be this big a favorite. FSU has loads of talent but still plenty of question marks.

Pick: NC State +6.5

Delaware at Pittsburgh (-27), Saturday, 12:30 p.m. ET

I’ve been against Pitt many times this year (unsuccessfully), so it feels like I’m late to the party, but the Panthers are playing sound football and look like they’ve got Delaware overmatched. Beware of the hangover after a big win against Central Florida, but based off what has transpired so far this year, Pitt looks like the play.

Pick: Pittsburgh -27

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