The Big 12 Conference Tournament is Baylor’s to lose

With conference tournaments starting up next week, it’s time to look at future bets to find the best value.

The Big 12 has two of the four best teams in the nation. Baylor and Kansas are both looking to secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but Texas Tech and West Virginia will hope to be spoilers.

Let’s break down the four teams with the best chance to win the NCAA Tournament and find a winner.

Baylor +140

The Bears have not lost since the second game of the season, a matchup with Washington in Alaska they let slip away in the final seconds.

They are a well-balanced machine that suffocates teams with defense. They allow the third-fewest points per game in the nation. According to FiveThirtyEight, Baylor plays man defense 98% of the time, a break from its hybrid defenses of previous years, and allows only 0.75 points per play this season.

There is no style the Bears struggle defending in the halfcourt, and they do everything possible to deny the ball getting to the paint. And if you do get to the rim, Baylor is 33rd in blocked shots per game.

The Bears have already showed they can topple Kansas and will try again this weekend. They defeated the Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse by 12 points, the worst home defeat in Bill Self’s tenure at the school.

Baylor's Jared Butler was a serious problem for Kansas, and he has scored at least 15 points in four of his last five games. He has been helped by MaCio Teague’s 14.4 points per contest, but Teague has missed the past two games with an injured wrist.

Another concern is the Bears' inability to hit threes (they've made 33% of their attempts in Big 12 play). If they aren’t clicking, the Bears could struggle in the conference tournament, if a team can figure out their defense.

Kansas +200

We will know more about how the Jayhawks matchup after this weekend’s battle in Waco, but Kansas has the talent and the experience to make a deep run and win the Big 12 Tournament.

Guard play is critical come tournament time, and Devon Dotson has been red hot. He missed the second half of Kansas' first matchup with Baylor because of a hip injury and scored only nine points, but he has scored in double figures in every game since.

Dotson is known for fading a bit in Kansas’ bigger games, however. He is shooting just 39.1% from the floor against ranked teams this season. That is where Udoka Azubuike, the massive presence inside, comes into play. He is making 73% of his attempts from the field this season, but his 42.5% free-throw shooting is one of the worst numbers in the nation.

There are only two teams better defensively than Baylor in KenPom’s adjusted defensive rankings. One of them is Kansas. The Jayhawks thrive by limiting teams to a single shot per possession and put pressure on opposing guards. Marcus Garrett is known for his excellent defense, and Azubuike is a terror inside. If Azubuike can stay out of foul trouble, and Dotson can step up come tournament time, this team could knock off Baylor and claim the conference crown.

West Virginia +450

Never count out Bob Huggins' teams. The Mountaineers have struggled offensively, but they rank 11th in scoring defense and 15th in rebounds. They are masters at winning ugly. If they run into a team that is tired and fatigued, they could pull an upset, but it’s unlikely they can win three straight games in the conference tournament.

Texas Tech +650

It’s been an up-and-down season for the Red Raiders, who have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation. They have lost nine games, but five have come by five points or fewer, including defeats by Kansas, Kentucky, and Baylor. They have faced six ranked teams this season and defeated only two—Louisville and West Virginia.

The Red Raiders have a short bench, with only five players averaging more than 20 minutes per game. Guards Jahmi’us Ramsey and Davide Moretti can light it up at any time, but the Red Raiders have struggled to close out games and they are ranked 335th in rebounding.

It’s difficult to think they can make a serious challenge for the conference tournament crown, but Chris Beard is an excellent coach, and if they can defeat either Baylor or Kansas in their final two games of the season, this team could go into the tournament full of confidence and ready to make a run.

NCAAB free pick: Baylor +140

The Bears are playing the best basketball in the nation, and their defense will allow them to win three games in three days. Outside shooting is a concern, but there is only one team in the Big 12 that can compete with their size and athleticism.

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