Scott Shapiro's NCAAB Saturday preview

There is a loaded slate of college basketball action this Saturday, headlined by the 2020 Big 12/SEC Challenge. Here are my thoughts on three of the weekend’s most compelling matchups.

#1 Baylor at Florida, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Florida, which was ranked in the top 10 in all preseason publications to start the year, has been a bit of a disappointment. However, Mike White’s team has played better of late, despite an 84-82 loss at LSU on Tuesday. The Gators have a massive opportunity to bolster their résumé Saturday, when top ranked Baylor comes to town.

The Bears has won 15 straight, including victories at Kansas, at home against Butler and Arizona, and in the Myrtle Beach Invitational against Villanova. Baylor head coach Scott Drew is getting the most out of his talent, and his squad is especially strong on the defensive end, where the Bears rank fourth in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency.

Baylor’s ability to make life difficult on opposing offenses and crash the offensive boards at an elite level will make life challenging for Florida. However, the Florida offense is playing as well as it has all year, and the Gators are tough to beat at home.

Look for the trio of Kerry Blackshear, Andrew Nembhard, and Keyontae Johnson to supply enough on the offensive end to earn a massive victory at the O’Connell Center.

NCAAB free pick: Florida (-1)

#21 Illinois at Michigan, noon ET (FS1)

The Wolverines got off to a 7-0 start in head coach Juwan Howard’s first season, which included an 82-64 victory against Gonzaga in the Battle 4 Atlantis championship game, but things have not gone well since. Michigan is 4-7 since the Gonzaga win and has yet to outscore its opposition in a true road game. The good news the Wolverines is they are at home Saturday afternoon.

Illinois has not made the NCAA tournament since 2013, but that streak is all but certain to end this year. The Fighting Illini have won five in a row, including two road victories at Wisconsin and Purdue. Anyone following the Big Ten this year knows just how hard victories away from home have been to manufacture.

There is little doubt Illinois is playing better basketball than Michigan right now, especially with the Wolverines missing 6-foot-7 forward Isaiah Livers, who was averaging 13.6 points per game and shooting 50% from behind the arc before he went down with a groin injury. However, the Illini are on the road for their second of two challenging road games, while Michigan has been at home all week.

Playing at the Crisler Center did not help the Wolverines in a 72-63 loss to Penn State on Wednesday night, but Michigan is in a desperate spot against a subpar three-point-shooting Illinois team, which is likely to regress to the mean after it knocked down more than 43% of its attempts from outside in each of its two road wins in January.

Look for Michigan to be sharp on offense and find a way to get a much-needed home win.

NCAAB free pick: Michigan (-3.5)

#15 Kentucky at #18 Texas Tech, 6 p.m. ET (ESPN)

It has been an up-and-down year, given the preseason expectations for Big Blue Nation. The Wildcats were fantastic in the season opener against Michigan State and won a thriller in overtime against in-state rival Louisville, but lost at home to Evansville, on a neutral court to Utah, and at South Carolina. The Cats face a tough task when they encounter just their fourth true road game of the season against Texas Tech.

It was a magical run for the Red Raiders a season ago, which ended in a gut-wrenching overtime loss to Virginia in the National Championship Game, but it has been a tougher go this year for head coach Chris Beard. Tech is still one of the best defensive teams in the nation, but the loss of Jarrett Culver, the sixth overall pick in the NBA Draft, as well as sharp-shooting Matt Mooney has led to a much less efficient team on the offensive end.

The Red Raiders have lost three of their last five, including a 65-54 defeat to TCU in a look-ahead spot in Fort Worth on Tuesday, but I expect them to make life extremely difficult on a Kentucky offense that has struggled from three-point range this year.

Give me Beard at home against Coach Cal in what should be a fun one in Lubbock.

NCAAB free pick: Texas Tech (-4)

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Check out all the college basketball matchups for the weekend at BetAmerica!