Duke favored to win ACC Tournament, but it's far from a slam dunk

The ACC has arguably been the greatest conference in college basketball history. It has been led through the years by blue bloods Duke and North Carolina, but in 2011 it cemented itself as an even deeper conference with the addition of multiple Big East schools.

While 2019 has been a down year by the ACC’s own standards, its annual conference tournament, set to begin March 10, still promises to be a difficult gauntlet for its eventual champion to run.

Duke is favored to come out on top

According to current odds, Duke is the favorite to win this year’s tournament at a rather juicy +200. Duke is typically the favorite and at lower odds than these as they’ve enjoyed a run of NBA-ready talent through their revolving doors over the years. And while Coach K claims this year’s team doesn’t have the ceiling of more recent Duke teams, they still have plenty of talent on the roster.

This team has high school All-Americans at every position on the court, and are led by a point guard in Tre Jones with March Madness experience. Duke has plenty of question marks, but there could be a worse bet than this talented team, with a veteran coach, playing in their own back yard and with a potential No. 1 seed on the line.

Don't overlook Louisville

That being said, there are plenty of longer shots that deserve a look as well. The most obvious choice would be the team currently a half-game behind Duke in the regular season conference standings: Louisville.

The Cardinals had been leading the conference most of the year until last Saturday’s loss at Clemson. Louisville has already defeated Duke this season, though, and has one of the conference’s most dynamic scorers in guard, Jordan Nwora, who averages 18.3 points per game. Louisville has had a great season thus far, but back-to-back losses have to leave bettors wondering if they’ve just hit a lull or if there are serious cracks in the foundation.

The Seminoles are sneaky good

The next choice, and my pick given the current odds, are the Florida State Seminoles at +300. Head coach Leonard Hamilton’s teams have been perpetually underrated in recent years. This year, senior guard Trent Forrest leads the team, but he has plenty of support. Guard Devin Vassell has the most upside and is a smooth 6-foot-7 player that can do anything on the court. Freshman Patrick Williams can take over games, and former McDonald’s All-American M.J. Walker has the ability to get streaky from long-range as well.

The Seminoles are a very deep roster, playing 11 guys or more almost every game. This depth will serve them well come conference tournament time, when teams are expected to play several games in consecutive games. FSU has defeated Louisville, Virginia, and Syracuse already, and played Duke nearly even on Big Monday a week ago in Durham. There isn’t a team in this conference they can’t compete with, and with a seasoned leader in Forrest at the helm, I like FSU to take the conference tournament.

The defending champs are still a threat

Beyond those three teams, a few teams are worth a look at longer odds. Virginia sits at +650 and hasn’t had the greatest of seasons but let us not forget they are the defending national champions. Their style of play and defensive focus changes the dynamics of a game.  And perhaps most importantly, they are in the best position to get the coveted fourth seed and double-bye.

Syracuse is as feisty as ever

Syracuse sits at +2000 but they have historically given the favorite, Duke, plenty of trouble, and as with Virginia, play a unique style of defense with their 2-3 zone that can give teams fits in tournament play. Swingman Elijah Hughes averages 18.9 points per game and can take over a game at any point in time.

The last team worth considering is North Carolina at +5000. The Tar Heels’ disastrous season has been well-documented. They are dead last in the entire conference. But despite everything, they do have some talent and recently proved that when things break just right they can still compete with Duke. I’ve seen crazier things.

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