Burrow stays ahead of Hurts in Heisman odds as OU falls

If there was ever any doubt that the Heisman trophy is awarded to the best player on one of the most successful teams, one need only look at the stat lines for Week 9’s games. Going into the weekend, LSU quarterback Joe Burrow was a deserving favorite at +175, with Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts nipping at his heels at +180. Both quarterbacks have performed fantastically this season and were undefeated heading into Saturday.

Unfortunately for Hurts and Oklahoma, Kansas State played inspired football and OU was handed its first loss of the season. Following the loss Hurts now sits at +175 to win the Heisman. This is a drop in odds, only slightly, but it’s more a result of other longer shots (Jonathan Taylor, Justin Herbert, D’Andre Swift and Jake Fromm) falling out of competition than Hurts solidifying his position. His counterpart and Heisman-race opponent, Burrow, went from +175 to +125, making the gap between the two notably larger than it was just a week ago.

Odds to win the Heisman Trophy

Hurts outshined Burrow on Saturday

With this change in odds, one would think that Burrow had the better game of the two. These were the two stat lines for the two major contenders:

Joe Burrow: 32-42 for 321 yards passing, 31 yards rushing, two total touchdowns and one INT. Team scored 23 points.

Jalen Hurts: 19-26 for 395 yards passing, 91 yards rushing, four total touchdowns and no turnovers. Team scored 41 points.

Hurts had the more productive offensive game and by a fairly large margin. His team scored nearly twice as many points as Burrow’s, he had twice as many touchdowns, more passing and rushing yards and didn’t have a turnover. All things considered Hurts was more productive than Burrow.

Wins still count in the Heisman race

Arguments against this statistically based analysis will rightfully argue that the Auburn defense is much tougher than the Kansas State defense, but the real reason for the pricing difference between these two players are that one player won, while the other lost. It speaks to the fickle nature of fans, media and Heisman voters that team results so decisively drive individual accolades. And yet we must recognize this reality when looking for value from a betting perspective.

This is why Tua Tagovailoa is still lurking at +250, and why Ohio State QB Justin Fields is not removed from the competition as +700. Both of those players are still undefeated and still in the best positions to remain undefeated. The Heisman race got an interesting twist two weeks ago with Tagovailoa going down with injury and it got another last week with Hurts losing. If Tagovailoa comes back healthy and competes against LSU, all eyes will be watching, and it very well could go a long way in deciding this year’s winner.

Burrow is a deserving favorite

Burrow still deserves to be the favorite based off his full body of work, but as we saw from this past weekend, team results could still sway the voting. LSU has passed every test, but there are more to come. November will make for a fascinating month of college football.

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The Heisman Trophy is still far from decided. Wager on the top contenders now at BetAmerica.