Keith Thurman vs. Mario Barrios betting odds, preview, and pick

Former world champion Keith Thurman will make his long-awaited return to the ring on Saturday, Feb. 5 when he takes on Mario Barrios in an intriguing welterweight bout.

Let's dig into their matchup, beginning with the latest betting odds available.

Thurman is ending a three-year layoff

Thurman is making his first appearance in the ring in nearly three years against an undersized and easy-to-hit opponent coming off a loss. While Thurman hasn’t been seen since his 2019 loss to Manny Pacquiao, Barrios is getting this assignment primarily because "One Time" needs to shake off the rust to pursue bigger fish. Looking beyond the inactivity, he remains one of the most versatile fighters in the division, and possesses a vastly underrated ring IQ.

At his peak, Thurman was able to out-tough Shawn Porter and outbox Danny Garcia. The 2019 version saw him overcome a slow start and a rare knockdown to nearly beat an all-time great in Pacquiao. Against Barrios, he’s facing an opponent where he holds every physical and tactical advantage.

Barrios is moving up in weight and class for Thurman

Barrios was last seen giving Gervonta Davis a good scare last summer, only to succumb to Davis’ power late. Though he is technically moving up from junior welterweight to fight Thurman, Barrios competed briefly at welterweight before moving down.

Barrios can be a tough out due to his nonstop pressure, but his defensive skills are reliant on his chin and hoping the other fighter isn’t a big puncher. Thurman did struggle against an opponent of a similar mold in Josesito Lopez in his first comeback, but Barrios is arguably an easier mark to make Thurman look good.

"One Time" will look like solid gold in KO win

Thurman hasn’t won a fight by stoppage in close to seven years, but that will change in this fight thanks to Barrios being an open book. If Davis, who was severely undersized compared to Barrios, broke him down so quickly, then Thurman should have the same success.

Should Thurman not be at 100%, Barrios is still a stationary target who won’t stop eating his punches. He’s fighting an elite welterweight who is ready to get back into the mix, and one that will quickly exploit his shortcomings as he looks to deliver a devastating performance. We like Thurman to stop Barrios in the eighth round of a one-sided bout.

Boxing free pick: Thurman